As a Colombian international security analyst and friend of Ecuador, I invite you to closely watch the upcoming presidential elections. This is not just a local event: it is a moment that could reshape the geopolitical balance of South America and have repercussions on regional security and economic stability. For business leaders and undecided citizens, the decision they make will not only define Ecuador’s path but also its resilience against internal threats and external pressures. This analysis aims to objectively and impartially clarify why these elections are pivotal and what is at stake.
Regional Geopolitical Context: A Shifting Chessboard
South America is polarized. Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, and Venezuela have governments with left-leaning or progressive leanings. Many resist U.S. influence and work with China and Russia. Argentina, Paraguay, and Ecuador lean right or center-right, supporting free markets and closer ties to the West.
U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump emphasizes economic interests and security, viewing the region mainly through the lenses of irregular migration and narco-trafficking. According to the DEA’s National Drug Threat Assessment (2020), 91% of cocaine seized in the U.S. originated in Colombia, with 74% leaving via the Pacific routes that include Ecuadorian territory.
Rising tensions between Colombia’s progressive government, once a key U.S. ally, and the Trump administration over migration, drug policy, and tariffs create a strategic opening for Ecuador. The country can position itself as Washington’s reliable partner at a moment of regional flux.
Internal Challenges: Security and the Economy in Focus
For Ecuadorians, security is the top concern, followed by unemployment and economic instability. From Colombia’s experience, illicit economies such as drug trafficking, illegal mining, and money laundering fuel insecurity. Four critical factors stand out:
1. Transnational organized crime: it moves drugs, minerals, and illicit money.
2. Domestic gangs: they are behind micro-trafficking, extortion, and kidnappings.
3. A Prison Crisis: the Mafia Controlling Penitentiaries.
4. Corruption erodes the justice system, prosecution, and police.
These problems disrupt business, logistics, investment, and social stability. International cooperation, especially with the U.S., may be vital.
Candidates’ Proposals: Options in the Face of Crisis
Daniel Noboa
1. Modernize security forces through the “Plan Fénix,” integrating drones, surveillance, and improved equipment for police and military personnel.
2. Address the prison crisis with two new maximum-security facilities (begun in 2024) and expel foreign inmates with firm sentences.
3. Expand international cooperation with the U.S. and Europe against narcotrafficking.
4. Prevent crime by combining reintegration programs and community services with hardline measures, fostering social development.
Luisa González
1. Reinstitutionalize the state by restoring the Ministries of Security and Justice and purging corruption in the police, judiciary, and prosecution.
2. Strengthen security forces with AI, drones, CCTV-secured “safe zones,” and a $500M additional budget.
3. Counter narcotrafficking and organized crime with reinforced borders and an “ethical pact” against impunity.
4. Promote prevention and rehabilitation through community assemblies and the reintegration of ex-inmates.
Comparative Outlook
Noboa’s plan promises immediate, pragmatic impact by targeting narcotrafficking, illegal mining, and micro-trafficking with technology and equipment, while addressing the prison crisis with new facilities and foreign inmate expulsions. His emphasis on U.S. cooperation could boost efforts against money laundering and transnational crime, as it aligns with American priorities.
González proposes an ambitious structural reform, focused on dismantling corruption and rebuilding institutions. While potentially more effective in the long term, implementation risks include delays due to bureaucracy and offer no urgent solutions to the prison crisis.
Global Implications: Tariffs and U.S. Relations
Ecuador’s elections will have a significant impact not only on the country itself but also on South America’s fragile geopolitical balance and the U.S. security posture in the region. A government allied with Washington could immediately strengthen coordinated action against organized crime. A leftward shift, however, risks triggering swift economic and diplomatic turmoil, especially given the Trump administration’s confrontational approach to leftist governments in South America.
On April 1, Trump is set to announce “reciprocal tariffs,” effective April 2, 2025, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit. Ecuador, with key exports such as shrimp and flowers heavily dependent on the U.S. market, is more vulnerable than Brazil or Argentina, whose exports are more diversified. Tariffs could raise costs and reduce revenues. A solid relationship with Washington might mitigate or neutralize such measures, while a leftward tilt could exacerbate economic strains already compounded by security challenges.
Final Reflection
For Ecuadorians and business leaders, these elections are a critical turning point. The next government must urgently confront challenges that now stretch beyond national borders: securing communities and businesses while navigating a shifting global environment that demands reliable partners for the United States.
· Noboa offers speed and pragmatism.
· González offers a structural vision, but it carries risks of delay.
There is no absolute “right” choice, but there are clear consequences.
Your vote will not only define Ecuador’s future but may also reshape South America’s geopolitical chessboard. Think carefully about your priorities—and act with informed decision-making. The future is in your hands.